Bordeaux’s Energy Conservation Programs: Incentives For Businesses And Residents – It proposes 10 actions to reduce oil demand with an immediate impact – and provides recommendations for how those actions could pave the way for putting oil demand on a more sustainable path in the long term.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in global commodity markets. The world oil market – in which Russia is a major power – is the most affected. Russia is the world’s third largest oil producer and largest oil exporter.
Bordeaux’s Energy Conservation Programs: Incentives For Businesses And Residents
The global oil market is experiencing significant stress, compounding the difficulties in the natural gas market and creating an emergency for global energy security. Oil prices have risen violently since the Russian invasion, with the global benchmark at times close to an all-time high of USD 150 per barrel, threatening the still-fragile and uneven global economic recovery. The United States and Canada are banning Russian oil imports while the United Kingdom has announced plans to do so by the end of the year. A March 16 fresh oil market report identified Russian oil exports likely to close by 2.5 million barrels per day from April; But the damage could increase if sanctions or public protests escalate. Long term volatility is likely for the market.
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More than half of Russia’s oil exports go to Europe and about 20% to China, but the market is global, meaning supply and price changes affect everyone. The repercussions of the price hike are everywhere. Although international oil prices have not risen as high as the all-time highs reached in 2008, currency exchange rates mean that the price at the pump is at an all-time high in some countries. On average, monthly spending on oil products for transportation and heating in January and February increased by more than USD 40 per household (nearly 35%) in advanced economies and by about USD 20 per household (more than 55%) in emerging and developing economies. with last year’s level. With the potential loss of large Russian supplies, the market risks tightening further and oil prices will rise significantly in the coming months as the world enters the peak demand season of July and August. The risks are most acute – and in some cases already felt – in market segments where Russia is a major supplier, such as diesel.
Immediate action in advanced economies could reduce oil demand by 2.7 million barrels per day over the next 4 months.
Many governments are introducing measures to help consumers by reducing prices at the pump. Where possible, pricing measures should be carefully designed, giving priority to the poorest sections of the population and those for whom cars are an indispensable part of their economic activities. Governments can use different tools depending on the country’s context. For example, where taxes represent a large part of prices for consumers, a temporary reduction in that duty or VAT can reduce the additional burden on households. Direct payments are a means of targeting poorer segments of the population.
However, such measures do not address the broader stresses affecting the market. One way to do this is to increase supply. Some major producers outside of Russia have spare capacity, but the disappointing outcome of recent OPEC+ talks suggests limited willingness to provide immediate relief to the market. Member countries, as part of their collective response, unanimously agreed this month to draw down emergency stocks for an initial release of 62.7 million barrels, the largest stock release in history. New oil production projects may add liquidity to the market in the medium term but will not ease the current stress. Oil industry stocks help balance the market when demand exceeds supply. But even before the Russian invasion, the industry’s oil reserves were rapidly depleting. At the end of January, inventories in advanced economies were 335 million barrels below their five-year average and an eight-year low.
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Another way to balance the market and help ease the pain caused by high oil prices is to reduce demand. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, March
Global oil demand is forecast to decrease by 950 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 2022 due to the expected impact of higher prices and weaker GDP growth. But this will still keep the oil market very tight, and upward pressure on prices is likely to remain in an uncertain geopolitical environment.
A further reduction in demand is possible in the near term, however, through the actions of governments and citizens. The world’s advanced economies together account for about 45% of global oil demand, and most of them are members. Demand prevention (see Annex) is one of the emergency response measures that all member states must always be prepared for as a contingency – and can use to contribute to collective action in an emergency.
Given this and the potential emergency facing the world, here are 10 immediate actions that advanced economies can take ahead of the peak demand season before oil demand declines. We estimate that the full implementation of these measures in advanced economies could reduce oil demand by 2.7 million barrels over the next four months, compared to current levels. economy, but adopting them in more countries will further increase their impact. Ensuring local and regional coordination of their implementation will maximize impact.
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Looking ahead, the report suggests a path for countries to structurally moderate oil demand in the medium term, building on measures already included in the economic recovery package launched to deal with the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Adoption of the immediate and long-term recommendations will put countries on track to achieve the reduction in oil demand needed to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
Essentially focus on how we get from A to B. How these measures are implemented depends on each country’s own circumstances – with respect to their energy markets, transport infrastructure, social and political dynamics and other aspects.
It is ready to support all countries in designing and adapting measures according to their respective circumstances. While government regulations and mandates have proven to be very effective in successfully implementing these measures in various countries and cities, public information and awareness campaigns can serve as alternative or complementary measures. Ultimately, however, reducing oil demand is not solely up to national governments. Many measures can be implemented directly by other levels of government – such as state, regional or local – or followed voluntarily by citizens and companies, showing solidarity with the people of Ukraine and enabling them to save money while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Impact: About 290 kb/d of oil consumption can be saved in the short term by reducing the speed limit on motorways to just 10 km/h for cars. Heavy trucks can save another 140 kb/d (mainly diesel) if they reduce their speed by 10km/h.
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Impact: One day of working from home can avoid about 170 kb/d of oil consumption. Working from home for three days avoids about 500 kb/d in the short term.
Impact: Avoids about 380 kb/d of oil consumption in the short term if implemented every Sunday in large cities. If there is only one Sunday per month, the amount drops to 95kb/d.
Impact: Around 210 kb/d of oil reduction in the short term if alternative car access is implemented two days a week in large cities with good public transport options.
Impact: An increase of about 50% in average car occupancy in advanced economies on 1-in-10 trips and adoption of best practices to reduce car fuel consumption could save about 470 kb/d of oil in the short term.
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Impact: Avoids more than 100 kb/d of oil consumption in the short term, based on expected sales of electric and more fuel-efficient cars over the next four months. Consistent action on supply chain and policy support can help secure further savings.
Reducing oil consumption should not be a temporary solution. Consistent reductions are desirable not only to improve energy security, but also to address climate change and reduce air pollution. Governments have all the necessary tools to reduce oil demand in the coming years, which will support efforts to strengthen energy security and achieve important climate goals.
Societies that can adapt more easily and consumers that can integrate into their daily habits can help fuel demand for oil. But governments should also consider accelerating their clean energy transitions and their net zero emissions policies. To reach net zero emissions by 2050, oil demand in advanced economies in 2030 must be 15 million barrels less than in 2021.
Several measures to accelerate clean energy transitions
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