Effects Of Climate Change On Water Resources – Ensemble projection of future climate and surface water supply in the North Saskatchewan River Basin above Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

CFD model of the density-driven bidirectional flows through the West Crack Breach in the Great Salt Lake Causeway

Effects Of Climate Change On Water Resources

Effects Of Climate Change On Water Resources

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The Impact Of Climate Change On Coastal Groundwater: A Threat To Global Communities And Ecosystems

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Methodology For Studying Climate Change Impacts On Water Resources…

By Gabriel Gómez-Martínez Gabriel Gómez-Martínez Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 1, 2, * , Lorena Galiano Lorena Galiano Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 3 , Toni Rubio Toni Rubio Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 3 , Carlos Prado-López Carlos Prado-López Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View publications 3 , Darío Redolat Darío Redolat Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View publications 3 , César Paradinas Blázquez César Paradinas Blázquez Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View publications.org Gaitán Emma Gaitán Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 3 , María Pedro-Monzonís María Pedro-Monzonís Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 1 , Sergio Ferriz-Sánchez Sergio Ferriz-Sánchez Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 1, 4 , Miguel Añó Soto Miguel Añó Soto Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 1, 4 , Robert Monjo Robert Monjo Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 3, 5 , Miguel Ángel Pérez-Martín Miguel Ángel Pérez-Martín Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 2 , Pura Almenar Llorens Pura Almenar Llorens Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 1, 4 and Javier Macián Cervera Javier Macián Cervera Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar View Publications 1, 4

IIAMA—Instituto de Ingeniería del Agua y Medio Ambiente, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 València, Spain

Department of Algebra, Geometry and Topology, Complutense University of Madrid, Plaza de Ciencias 3, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid, Spain

Effects Of Climate Change On Water Resources

Submission received: July 26, 2021 / Revised: August 28, 2021 / Approved: August 30, 2021 / Published: September 3, 2021

Climate Change, Environmental Degradation, Water Scarcity Threaten Food Security

The Mediterranean region is a hot spot for climate change, especially when it comes to issues of hydrological planning and urban water supply systems. In this context, the Jucar River (Spain) shows an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme meteorological phenomena, such as torrential rains, droughts or heat waves, which directly affect the quantity and quality of the raw water available for drinking. This paper aims to analyze the effects of climate change on raw water quality in the Jucar River Basin District, which mainly supplies the city of Valencia and its metropolitan area, in order to adapt the drinking water treatments to new conditions and opportunities. To this end, we used observed data for water quality parameters from four stations and climate drivers from seven Earth system models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6. To model water quality (turbidity and conductivity) in past and future scenarios, this study uses a backward stepwise regression which takes into account daily values ​​for mean temperature, maximum temperature, total precipitation and minimum and maximum relative humidity. The results showed that the model performance for the water quality simulation is more adequate for short moving average windows (about 2–7 days) for turbidity and longer windows (about 30–60 days) for conductivity. Regarding the future scenarios, the most significant change was found in the projected increase in conductivity for the Júcar River station, between 4 and 11% in 2100, under medium (SSP2–4.5) and pessimistic (SSP5–8.5) discharge scenarios, respectively. The joint use of these types of management and monitoring tools can help the managers responsible for performing the various water treatments needed to implement a better plan for raw water and can help them identify future threats and investment needs to adapt urban water supplies to the changing the conditions of raw water, such as turbidity or conductivity, as a consequence of climate change.

Traditionally, urban growth has been accompanied by the search for new water resources to meet the drinking water needs of new settlements. These additional volumes can come from conventional resources (either by increasing the exploitation of surface and groundwater) or from unconventional resources (by resorting to water transfers from other basins or desalination of seawater). For this reason, it is necessary to promote the use of integrated resource management and the use of decision-making tools and simulation models, for a better management under uncertainty scenarios and more resilient resource allocation [1, 2, 3, 4].

Many regions of the world suffer from structural water stress and scarcity problems in the management and allocation of water resources. Regions such as those located in the Mediterranean area, such as the city of Valencia and its metropolitan area, can be considered as an example of this situation [5, 6, 7, 8, 9].

Problems linked to water scarcity and drought have become worse in recent decades due to the effects of climate change, which has increased their extent and frequency [10]. In Mediterranean regions, such as the Jucar River Basin District, where the city of Valencia is located, the effects of climate change over water scarcity and the reduction of the availability of water resources are definitely exacerbated [11] and they have been estimated in a number to go from 8 to 28% of the flow reduction by the end of the century [12, 13, 14].

Climate Change And Impacts To Water Resources

In addition, many studies have also found an impact of climate on water quality [15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20], which is of great importance to ecosystems and societies, as many sectors (e.g. human health, industry, water ). livelihoods and sanitation, or tourism) are dependent on water resources and their availability in good condition. However, the quality of surface and groundwater has generally deteriorated in recent decades as a consequence of the growth of agricultural and industrial activities, together with changes in hydrological regimes associated with climate change that have important socio-economic impacts [21, 22].

Water quality in freshwater systems is the result of a sensitive and complex interaction between climate variability and hydrological, biogeochemical and anthropogenic influences acting on different temporal and spatial scales [16]. It is therefore difficult to clearly point out the role of the climate. Water pollution is directly related to human activities of urban, industrial and agricultural origin (as well as changes in land use). On the other hand, climate change can lead to a deterioration of surface water quality as an indirect consequence of these activities, mainly through increased temperatures and changed precipitation patterns. In connection with heavy rainfall events, nutrient runoff from farmland is triggered and increasingly warmer temperatures accelerate the growth of bacteria and phytoplankton. Floods and droughts also alter water quality through direct solute dilution or concentration effects [ 15 , 16 , 17 , 21 ].

Considering current and projected climate change scenarios, it is necessary to incorporate information on climate-related risks and impacts into operational and strategic decision-making processes to reduce water quality degradation [ 20 , 23 ]. This is a major effort, as it is necessary to assess specific climatic conditions and the extent to which they can change water quality, while taking into account land use and management, population distribution and other factors [17]. Along this line, many studies have confirmed that temperature and precipitation have important effects on water quality (e.g. [19]) and are used as climate predictors with lag times, using their predictive nature. Nevertheless, it should be considered that depending on the location and the river in question, the climate impact may change and may include other variables in addition to those mentioned.

Effects Of Climate Change On Water Resources

In general, significant changes in local and global climate patterns are projected at very different time scales, especially in terms of temperature and precipitation, either in terms of average values ​​or in terms of frequency, intensity or duration of extreme events [24, 25] . The consequences caused by these extreme phenomena directly affect water bodies (both surface water and groundwater) and, as a consequence, the quantity and quality of raw water available for drinking water [13, 26, 27]. In addition, it should be emphasized that the Mediterranean region is a hotspot for changes in the hydrological cycle,

Effects Of Climate Change On Water Resources And Watercourses

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