“electrification Of Transportation: Impact On Gasoline Demand And Electricity Load” – The rise of distributed energy resources (DERs) is an exciting and attractive opportunity for customers and a challenge and opportunity for utilities and the organizations that regulate them. DERs are a category of solutions that include distributed generation sources such as combined thermal power (CHP), solar and wind, as well as energy storage such as batteries. In this white paper, West Monroe Partners takes a comprehensive look at how consumers, utilities and regulators are approaching, or resisting, this energy evolution. This research examines the present and future state of DERs through multiple objectives: customer adoption and awareness; utility adoption challenges and opportunities, and support and planning initiatives; and the actions, obstacles and perceptions of regulatory commissions.
We found that while DER presence among residential, commercial and industrial sites is still limited, customer interest is increasing and adoption is on the verge of booming in many US states. she says they have yet to settle on clear, collaborative ways to prepare. Factors ranging from technology availability and cost to public policy drivers and business models are contributing to the hurdles slowing DER penetration in the United States. These issues continue to hamper the industry’s ability to smoothly accommodate new energy technologies and gain acceptance. By illuminating the gaps between customer needs, utility plans, and regulators’ perceptions, it is evident that these publics need to form a more united front before significant change can actually occur in their state.
“electrification Of Transportation: Impact On Gasoline Demand And Electricity Load”
By proactively responding to EV trends, utilities can define multiple value streams that will drive regulatory policy and align staff around a holistic approach to transportation electrification (TE) program management. Implementing a consistent end-to-end TE program that meets utility and customer needs must leverage cross-departmental collaboration and workflow.
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In the United States, where transportation accounts for 29% of total energy consumed annually, we are seeing a slow but steady shift from gas and diesel to electricity, with electric vehicles predicted to become 11% of all passenger vehicle sales by 2025 and 55 percent by 2040. The growing trend of electrification of transportation will create huge opportunities for the electric utility sector.
TE’s growth is being driven by a variety of factors, including falling EV prices and increasing EV driving ranges: New EV models from major automakers, for example, will increase the driving range from an average of 114 miles (in 2015) to 275 miles by 2022. Also, higher capacity vehicles are arriving on the scene. Electric buses from suppliers like Proterra are already in service, while electric pickup trucks from Rivian and long-haul semi-trailers from Tesla are expected to enter the market by 2020.
Accompanying the growth in the quantity and variety of EVs is an acceleration in the EV charging infrastructure. As shown in Figure 1, the Edison Electric Institute predicts that by 2030 nearly 10 million chargers of various types will be located in workplaces, commercial construction sites, apartment buildings, municipal parking lots and transit depots across the United States.
However, as consumers and businesses embrace TE at different rates, electric utilities must make a decision: take a proactive stance or maintain a “wait and see” stance. For some, the business case for supporting TE is clear and has already been translated into regulatory documents and policies. Proponents of utility support from TE, for example, often point out that higher grid utilization can be achieved by virtue of the flexibility of EV loads. In the case of California, regulators have approved significant funding for major IOUs based on several value streams for TE that include:
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Furthermore, the future for these value streams is bright. By 2030, there is the potential for EV charging user burden growth 15% higher than today, and EV charging infrastructure capital expenditure is projected to reach $45 billion for the residential, commercial, industrial and mass transit segments, a significant portion of which goes to the enhancement of electrical services at the customer site. As a result, utility executives and managers driving regulatory filing and TE program managers accelerating EV programs have a unique opportunity to influence TE’s growth. In the pages that follow, we will identify key challenges in designing and optimizing utility TE initiatives while highlighting best practices for leveraging an integrated program planning strategy.
Adopting any TE program plan requires careful consideration of the impact a new type of load can have on the network network, both at an individual site level, and at a system level, to plan for the future. The growing diversity and quantity of EV charging points, as shown in Figure 3, shows the potential for large concentrated loads in a variety of locations such as workplaces, retail stores and multi-unit homes.
For example, 430 EV charge points in 2008 grew 100-fold to over 47,000 workplace and public EV charge points in 2017, with EEI projecting 1.2 million public charge points by 2030. Workplace parking will see similar growth, with companies like Google planning to convert 5% of parking spaces for its 85,000 employees into electric vehicle charging stations. Meanwhile, apartment building managers are installing chargers in anticipation of future tenants who will own electric vehicles. Retailers are also rolling out EV charging infrastructure, for example Walmart has announced plans to install EV chargers in 100 stores.
For larger EV charging installations, the local electrical infrastructure may be under significant stress and may require upgrades, as a result TE program managers must include engineering considerations before greenlighting a new charger project for electric vehicles.
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Figures 3 and 4 demonstrate these pressures by highlighting the significant range of energy capacities and charging rates for electric vehicles, each of which can rapidly produce significant system impacts. For example, the load of each EV on a level 2 charger at 6kW can exceed the typical load of an entire house; a workplace with 30 chargers could see an EV peak load greater than 1 MW; and a transit bus depot with 10 e-buses charging at 250 kW could add 2.5 MW of new load to the local feeder with 3 to 6 MWh of additional consumption on the local loop per day.
The bottom line is that without a thorough TE program strategy, the growth of EVs can lead to unanticipated impacts on grid reliability. A proactive program, however, can leverage fleets of EV chargers as an aggregate distributed energy resource (DER), providing a flexible controlled load that enables increased grid utilization.
An integrated TE program plan provides TE program managers and utility executives with a framework that enables workflow coordination and communication between multiple internal departments, all while maintaining a seamless external customer experience. Given the large scale of TE initiatives, this methodology can prove crucial to the success of utilities.
While there isn’t space to cover every aspect of such a plan in this short white paper, there are eight critical elements you need to know to get started:
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3. Application Streamlining: Develop a workflow model that efficiently manages the lifecycle of a customer’s EV program application.
4. Local Impact on Grid Capacity: Design engineering review processes to evaluate each position in a set of EV site requirements.
5. Forecasting and Planning: Identify methods to predict the impact of C&I and residential EV charging on a grid network.
6. EV related products and programs: Continually seek to influence EV charging behaviors and provide incentives for customers to support the wider grid.
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Once TE programs are up and running, an integrated TE program plan can provide a framework to avoid the pitfalls of a fragmented and isolated process. Effective TE programs aim to integrate the parallel and serial workflows of every end-to-end interaction with TE customers.
While not all TE programs need to go through the complete process flow above, Figure 5 illustrates the lifecycle of utility-prospective EV customer interactions, from customer identification and application review through real-time implementation.
A key success factor that we have gleaned from existing TE program initiatives is the integration of separate workflow phases into a coherent program. Utilities can streamline process workflow by clearly defining key status points, team roles and transfers between stages, as well as identifying bottlenecks between stages.
Workflow management is key when it comes to tracking status. Lack of clarity among internal utility team members about the status of a customer’s EV project leads to accumulated delays, uncertainty, bottlenecks, and even end-customer frustration. You can implement software solutions that feature a visual iconic dashboard to provide a consistent status indicator to drive accountability and efficiency, reduce customer churn, and maintain customer satisfaction.
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Carefully vetted business case analysis tools like the one below can also provide clients with the information they need to justify a TE program commitment. For example, an effective business case analysis tool compares the costs of converting fleets to EVs and/or installing an EV charging infrastructure with the benefits of enabling critical business and sustainability decisions.
One final thought: TE programs must align with a utility’s core business goals. When optimally developed, these programs can help utilities acquire valuable new flex freight, increase customer service offerings, reduce
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