“europe’s Green Deal And Its Implications For The Energy Sector” – The European Commission’s Green Deal sets ambitious goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in clean technologies. But most of the money needs may not be met.

The European Green Deal includes more than 50 policies and will be financed with more than 1 trillion euros. © macpixxel for GIS

“europe’s Green Deal And Its Implications For The Energy Sector”

The European Commission has announced that it is launching a European Green Deal (EGD) to make Europe the first carbon neutral continent by 2050 By 2030, the plan will reduce the European Union’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 50 percent compared to 1990 levels. The original, long-debated target was 40 percent. The successful realization of this new objective will require a major change and use of the EU’s energy sector and its wider economy. The investment plan is dependent on adequate funding, international support and public acceptance within the country.

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The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen called the Green Deal “the European during the month.” No rule has been established. The plan aims to reduce the bloc’s greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050 by promoting innovation in the European economy.

The Commission says that the EGD is the center of a long-term plan to “improve the economy and our planet” by integrating the EU’s economic, energy and financial policies with the goals of its climate policy. It currently includes 50 specific policies, although most of them are not new.

The head of the Federation of German Industries (BDI) has already warned that the new expectations could “disrupt” businesses and consumers. At the last meeting of the Council of Europe in December, Poland opted out of the EGD.

If these plans are approved by the Council of Europe, then the representative of the country’s economy will need a deep change that will depend on sufficient funds and the support of the world. Without other big bad things, such as the United States, China, Japan, India and Brazil to reduce their gas emissions, the EU may risk its own economic competitiveness in the world.

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The European Commission has not been able to confirm how much money its plan will actually require. However, 100 billion euros have already been promised for an expanded Just Transition Fund (JTF) to implement the plan. In doing so, it is hoped to overcome the opposition of Poland and other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The promised figure of 100 billion euros for the JTF is almost three times the 35 billion euros in the first draft of the Commission’s proposal.

The JTF will be linked to a credit system from the European Investment Bank (EIB) and other banks, which will increase the co-financing available for the 10 member states from 50 percent to 75 percent above the related work. The member states are Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. They participate in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and are eligible for its Modernization Fund, which also offers opportunities for a high level of co-financing. Over the next ten years, the ETS will provide 26 billion euros available for the implementation of the European Green Deal.

President von der Leyen has also proposed a Sustainable European Investment Plan to stimulate 1 trillion euros of green investment until 2030. As part of this plan, the European Commission will raise its green financing efforts at 25 percent (320 billion euros) of the 2021- 2027 Multiannual Financial Framework, a significant increase compared to the 20 percent (206 billion euros) set for the same goal one in the 2014-2020 plan. EU countries will support or allow national subsidies to pay for increased carbon prices. Most of the funding, however, will include capital expenditures that are much needed during the transition period.

Under a certain perspective, all these funds will be provided because France, Italy and other EU members will successfully push for the redefinition of the EU’s tire rules in order to encourage the improvement of investment.

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In addition, France and some CEE countries will be allowed to include nuclear power as a clean energy source for meeting the EU’s climate goals – a solution currently opposed by Germany, Austria and Luxembourg. But the EU cannot actually achieve the 50-55 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 without using nuclear energy.

Under this proposal, the country’s representatives will still be allowed to build new projects related to natural gas to replace coal plants. Gas can be used after 2030 as the EU grows natural gas into more environmentally friendly “green gas” like of hydrogen and biomethane. Germany is discussing a hydrogen strategy and plans to push the EU-wide version when it is time to change the presidency of the EU next summer.

Under this scenario, the US will elect a new president in the November 2020 election and will decide not to leave the Paris Agreement. At the COP26 United Nations Climate Conference in November of this year, other major emitters will follow the European example and commit themselves to greater reductions in emissions by 2030.

Under an uncertain scenario, the European Green Deal will not have enough funding and new technologies will not go far enough to solve the major problems of the energy transition, such as the storage of large amounts of electricity at affordable prices.

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The European Commission has published the EGD without specifying the costs of implementation for its purposes. Various financial instruments, even 1 trillion euros for green investments, will, in this case, prove insufficient for the following reasons:

Before the publication of the European Green Deal, the EU has already set some serious examples of environmental policy. © macpixxel for GIS

The European Commission wants to take a bigger share of the EU funding pie to finance greenhouse gas reduction targets in the current annual framework. future (2021-2027) than before (2014-2020). But it may mean that cooperation and agricultural subsidies should be reduced, something that many members will reject. © macpixxel for GIS

Internationally, under this model, other major exporters will not follow the European model. and use reduced filtration. A similar result happened at the COP25 conference in 2019.

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China in particular will use the opportunity to further strengthen its economic and technological competitiveness thanks to low energy and carbon prices. The situation will lead to more carbon-leakage effects (such as goods and services imported into the bloc still have a high carbon footprint) and “greenwashed” projects. ” seems to be more environmentally friendly than they are. Even if Russia, Brazil, China and other countries do not follow the US in withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, they will not accept any climate policy that reduces the economy. Nor can they – or the producers of oil and gas in Africa – with the desire to limit their oil and gas exports, which for many of them generate more income for their budgets state. In their view, governance and political stability are at the top of any climate protection effort.

In summary, most of the forces in the world will grow strongly at this time. In addition, the conflict between the goals of global climate change (such as limiting warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius) and the reality of the energy market will grow a lot. The use of coal, for example, is still growing: it reached a new record of 6,900 TWh in 2018. The production of greenhouse gases worldwide increased by 2 percent in in 2018. At the same time, the growth of net investment is slowing down.

Investment in projects and operations has begun to slow in recent years. © macpixxel for GIS

The most likely scenario for the European Green Deal will be more “disruption.” The year 2030 is likely to come and go without the EU achieving the 50 percent target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions for three major reasons. First, although the EGD will add strength to a transition of energy use and renewable technology, the financial impact and technological constraints will be reduced and the project will be more challenging than the hope (as confirmed by Germany.

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Second, as the EU will find out in the coming years, other major countries will not follow its example, even if they announce their own climate policy. Third, with the lack of international political support, increased costs for consumers will lead to consolidation. the general public (with right-wing political parties benefiting in particular). The Yellow Belt in France shows how such incidents occur. These developments will hinder the progress of the EU in achieving its economic goals.

The European Commission will also increase the need to balance its climate policies with economic competitiveness and security of supply. By focusing on financing green energy projects and many climate objectives, these two other factors have been largely overlooked.

The political discussions surrounding the European Green Deal, including funding requirements, tools and resources, have just begun. They will heat up in the coming months and years. Political opposition will not only come from Poland and other CEE countries. Germany, along with other members of the state, will raise objections, especially regarding the funding of instruments that conflict with other EU policies such as the Stability and Growth Pact.

Some people, including members of the European Parliament, have suggested a new tax for the EU, although it is not a popular idea among many members.

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