Forex Trading And Economic Outlook For Toronto: Attorney Analysis – Wadsworth Sykes combines Reuters Polling data and Datastream charts to analyze the economic outlook for North America, presenting a series of insights that focus on the outlook for GDP, inflation, interest rates, home and forex.

The average GDP forecast gathered by Reuters Polling shows positive annual growth for North America. In particular, the United States is expected to expand at a significantly slower rate than its continental neighbors.

Forex Trading And Economic Outlook For Toronto: Attorney Analysis

Forex Trading And Economic Outlook For Toronto: Attorney Analysis

At the country level, the United States and Canada are expected to see inflation numbers close to 2 percent by the end of 2023.  Forecasters see inflation remaining higher for more in Mexico with an annual increase expected to be 4.4 percent by the end of 2023.

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See Reuters polls to understand the views of leading forecasters in the financial markets, and get the history of detailed forecast polls and consensus estimates.

The average prediction indicates a mean reversion trend for the Loonie over the next 12 months, with the consensus estimate just above the 10-year average rate of 1.2 CAD/USD.

A snapshot of Canadian rate expectations as of September 1, 2022, using Datastream’s fan chart functionality in addition to premium forecast data enables unique insights/output.

The chart below takes the inflation forecasts of the six major banks in Canada and compares them to the consensus.

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The consensus forecast indicates that inflation will not return to target levels until 2024. However, most financial institutions expect headline inflation to more than halve in 2023.

Home prices in Toronto and Vancouver are expected to decline on an annual basis in 2023, followed by a slight recovery in 2024.

Leveraging the content of Datastream provides insight into the expectations of FX forecasters who expect a slight depreciation of the peso against the dollar in the next 12 months.

Forex Trading And Economic Outlook For Toronto: Attorney Analysis

Mexico’s policy rate has already exceeded consensus-level forecasts. Will Mexico start to cut or continue to raise taxes, following its neighbors to the north?

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It was an eventful summer in the United States. Between June and August, the United States saw persistent 8 percent annual price growth.

In particular, most major US banks see a return to target inflation by 2024. Deloitte is an outlier, predicting 2024 inflation to be above 8 percent on average.

The chart below shows the mean and median Fed Funds forecast ahead of the September 22 meeting, where the benchmark interest rate was raised three-quarters of a percentage point in an effort to curb inflation.

Economists expect a slowdown in home sales in 2023 as mortgage rates continue to reach near-term highs in the United States.

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Global Economics and Macro: Leverage the world’s largest repository of economic and financial time series data—from macro views to micro details—combined with Datastream’s charts, analytics, and predictive tools to make more informed decisions.

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Identify trends, generate and test hypotheses, and develop insights and research. Loaded with 70 years of information, Datastream is the world’s most comprehensive financial time series database

Forex Trading And Economic Outlook For Toronto: Attorney Analysis

Reuters polls are expert opinion polls, which offer views of what the main forecasters think in the financial markets, traceable to a particular point in time.

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Trading Insights Petroleum Refining: A snapshot of global grassroots initiatives June 22, 2023 • Hillary S. • James M. 5 minA trend is a tendency for prices to move in a particular direction over a period. Trends can be long-term, short-term, up, down and even sideways. Success with forex market investments is related to the investor’s ability to identify trends and positions for profitable entry and exit points. This article examines the phases of a forex trend and how they affect investors.

For the most part, an economy that is strong will also have a strong currency. Economic strength attracts investment, and investment creates demand for a currency. The demand for gold as an alternative to fiat currencies has led to a demand for currency in those countries that produce gold, such as Australia, South Africa and Canada.

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Note how economic factors, in this case, a demand for gold and higher interest rates in Australia around 2009 to 2012, create a demand for Australian currency. This type of demand will last until the exchange rate becomes too high and negatively affects Australian exports.

In addition, factors in other economies must be considered since no single currency can act in isolation from the rest of the world economy.

The chart below of the weekly AUD/USD shows the recent trend of the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar at the moment. While the price (exchange rate) oscillated back and forth in a regression channel, providing some short-term trades in the opposite direction, the prevailing upward trend remained intact.

Forex Trading And Economic Outlook For Toronto: Attorney Analysis

In the graph below, the Canadian dollar strengthened against the American dollar during the period from 2009 to 2011. Canada is also a country that produces commodities, with many natural resources. a steep growth path as demand for Australian dollars increases. Since the Australian currency is the base currency and the US dollar is the quote currency, the chart shows a strong upward trend and strengthening of the Australian dollar.

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On the other hand, in the case of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, the US dollar is the base currency while the Canadian dollar is the quote currency. Thus, the chart shows the US dollar sloping downward as it weakened against the Canadian dollar.

Conventional wisdom among traders is that “the trend is your friend”. While this is good advice, let’s add a word of caution: “The trend is your friend… until the end.”

Of course, the difficult questions to answer are whether a trend exists at all or just a sideways trading range and where and when a trend begins and where and when it ends.

Let’s first look at the question of where a trend might start and, once it starts, where to take part in the action. To answer these questions, we need technical analysis. To keep our analysis as simple as possible, we create a chart that uses a weekly time frame and uses only two indicators.

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The first indicator is a 20-period simple moving average calculated on closing prices. In any case, to add a cushion, we also add a simple modern average of 20 additional periods, but this time calculated on the height of the price. Then, we add another simple moving average of 20 periods calculated on price lows. The result is a movement. middle channel that reflects a dynamic price equilibrium.

We use this channel to determine when prices are trending and when prices are trending. We assume that if prices break below the channel, there is a potential downtrend, and if they break above the channel, there is a potential uptrend.

Notice also that when a market tends in any direction, there is a tendency for prices to move away from the channel and return to the channel while volatility increases and decreases, respectively. With volatility, prices always tend to return to the average over a period. This reversion to the mean provides buying or selling opportunities depending on the direction of the trend.

Forex Trading And Economic Outlook For Toronto: Attorney Analysis

In addition to moving averages, we also add anRSI set to a period of two, instead of the usual 14-period, with plot guides set to 90 and 10 instead of the usual 70 and 30.

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The chart shows some interesting opportunities. Whenever the RSI reaches an extreme at the 90-plot guide, it provides a selling opportunity while the trend is downward and prices are below the channel. Whenever the RSI reaches the 90-plot guide, the price has also returned to the channel providing a new opportunity to sell in the direction of the trend.

Conversely, as the trend moves up, prices return to the channel at the same time as the RSI reaches the 10 plot guide providing new buying opportunities.

Trading in the above way means trading only in the direction of the trend whenever it corrects, thus providing a new opportunity to participate.

Many traders will try to trade inversions. A reversal point is always where a trend begins or ends. To find these potential reversal points, we look for price patterns (such as double or triple top or bottom), Fibonacci levels or trend lines. A reversal often occurs at a Fibonacci extension 127.2 or 161.8. Therefore, it is also useful to draw the Fibonacci lines on the weekly charts and then see the result on the daily chart as the prices approach one of the Fib levels.

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Some trends are stronger than others. In fact, some trends become so exuberant that prices form a j-shaped or parabolic curve.

On the next chart, we see an example of an irrational parabolic price curve of the World Silver Index. It is irrational why traders push the prices of silver, since the whole complex of commodities is benefiting from strong flows of funds in futures and ETFs without there being an equal and natural demand for the underlying product. This is a case of “musical chairs”. By the time

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