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By Christoph Halser Christoph Halser Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 1, * and Florentina Paraschiv Florentina Paraschiv Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 2, 3
Received: 30 May 2022 / Revised: 1 July 2022 / Accepted: 2 July 2022 / Published: 6 July 2022
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(This article is in the Special Issue Energy Security at the Nexus of Risk, Resilience and Sustainability: Antinomy or Panacea?)
The war in Ukraine has made German policymakers aware of the negative economic impact of restricting the flow of natural gas from Russia. Given its high dependence on imports, Germany has implemented measures to reduce the possibility of gas shortages and is seeking to diversify away from imports of natural gas (LNG). In this context, we provide a detailed analysis of the gas crisis in Europe and place it in the context of the particular role of gas in Germany. We discuss in detail the economic impact of the sanctions, and assess the demand and supply factors that can reduce supply shortages. We find a short-term import substitution potential of 13 bcm, assuming the installation of Fluid Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs). We discuss potential demand reductions in the electricity sector, in industrial use, and in households, and estimate an average limit of 24.1 bcm. Under the reduced industrial demand, the best-case scenario shows an import deficit of around 9 bcm for the one-year outlook. Given our findings, we recommend a slow phase-out of coal and nuclear power, an accelerated deployment of renewable energy, and caution in the early implementation of storage quotas and restrictions for industrial consumers.
Due to the increase in gas prices in Europe and the worsening of gas supply in Europe, Russian gas importers are planning strategies to curb the gas crisis. In the long-term perspective, the German government intends to reduce gas consumption from Russia to an average of 10% by 2024 . Russia’s occupation of Ukraine, and the suspension of Russian supplies to many European countries, has called for short-term measures to avoid gas shortages, which reflect the difference in imports and reforms. requirements. Given the constraints on these measures, through the limitation of import routes and the possibility of demand adjustments, the means of reducing Russia’s dependence on natural gas imports cannot follow the appropriate trend. Instead, with the aim of avoiding the negative economic impact of gas shortages, these methods are defined by the urgent need to seek replacement of Russian gas in imports.
Germany is highly dependent on natural gas imports from Russia, which will account for 55% of imports in 2020  and reach 46 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 . Despite the traditional use in homes and industry, in Germany, the gas industry has been given the additional task of providing the balance for the intermediate increase in the share of renewable electricity. , because of their rapid change compared to coal. electric drive. Additionally, natural gas provides a cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels, emitting about 45% less CO.
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, on average, more than coal . Investments in sustainable gas infrastructure are therefore declared subject to EU taxation, if they are compatible with the EU’s decarbonization policy .
Having a share of industrial use in 2021 of 37.2% , natural gas is used in various industrial processes, mainly to process heat. In addition to the high dependence on natural gas for households (31.2% of consumption in 2021 ), the challenge of low natural gas for the industrial sector lies in the use of natural gas to manufacture basic goods. The largest contributors to industrial demand are the chemical industry (29.1%), the food industry (15.2%), and the metalworking industry (12.5%) . Due to limited industrial use cases, the possibility of rapid conversion of natural gas to other energy sources is limited . Therefore, unexpectedly, the reduction of the amount of natural gas from Russia to Germany, which Germany did not prepare, can have a negative effect on the economy. Estimates show the negative impact on GDP for two years could be 5.3%, with an additional unemployment of 750,000 . A study using a robust model, which replacement can reduce the negative impact of the German economy, implements a significant but moderate effect on GDP between 0.2% and 0.3% . Although the author’s lowest estimate gives a negative contribution of 3% to the GDP, a previous study  further suggested the first voluntary gas restrictions to trigger adjustment measures.
The lack of sufficient reserves in the summer months of 2021 by Gazprom, and its Astora, caused fears of a shortage of European gas and led to a dramatic increase in prices, with an increase of 116 EUR / MWh per year up to 5 October 2021 . As a response to insufficient national storage, several regulatory measures have been taken, such as defining a mandatory storage quota. Due to the historic natural gas supply from Russia, Germany has not developed domestic LNG import capacity, which has limited import capacity. Faced with declining imports from Russia and the threat of gas shortages, Germany has issued options to lease a Liquid Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) to allow short-term domestic LNG imports.
The crisis related to natural gas can be regulated with the aim of energy security. Energy security can be concerned with different aspects of risk sources, such as technological, human, or natural risk sources, while most definitions focus on supply . There is no universal definition of energy security that exists  and it can be defined as a context and energy . Analytical studies have criticized the exclusive focus on energy carriers , and found benefits to include environmental sustainability and energy efficiency . The previous study  therefore shows the importance of a positive increase in energy production and less dependence on imports in the EU, due to the growth of renewable energy. Due to the integration of fossil energy and renewables, a two-fold process is called for in order to realize the low-carbon transition and the elimination of fossil fuels (high-carbon transition) .
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A distinction can be drawn between short-term and long-term energy security , the former being related to relative scarcity (demand and supply imbalance), wasteful or complete waste, and their reduction . Several indicators for long-term import dependence exist, such as Shannon’s index, which calculates the relative exchange rate of import-based national energy balance , and can be developed by means of political risk assessment  . A popular way to identify long-term energy security factors are the four As, which include Availability, Accessibility, Acceptability, and Affordability indicators . Although these types are interdependent and context-dependent , the IEA defines energy security “as an uninterrupted supply of energy at an affordable price” .
The Russian company, Gazprom, has long been accused of exploiting the energy dependence of European natural gas importers for political gain , and many studies have considered Russia’s use of the “weapon energy” in Europe (eg, [25,) 26]). The deterioration of energy security is described as the result of dependence on one gas supplier, such as Russia . Although diversity is necessary but not sufficient for the security of energy flows , studies have noted the effects of EU import dependence on energy security . In the context of our study, the short-term definitions are more appropriate, which defines energy security as the minimum vulnerability of the critical energy system , and the ability to insure against the risk of disruption of imports , or just the power of the energy system. to collapse . Other definitions used provide energy security as continuous supply .
Several studies have also constructed quantitative indices to measure the risk of natural gas imports
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