“geopolitics Of Energy: Analyzing Global Gas And Electricity Trade” – Probabilistic short-term load forecasting based on full ensemble empirical mode decomposition improved with adaptive noise reconstruction and salp Swarm algorithm
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“geopolitics Of Energy: Analyzing Global Gas And Electricity Trade”
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By Floros Flouros Floros Flouros Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 1 , Victoria Pistikou Victoria Pistikou Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 1, 2 and Vasilios Plakandaras Vasilios Plakandaras Scilit Preprints.org Google Scholar 2, *
Geopolitical Reality And Major Powers
Department of History, Politics and International Relations, School of Social Sciences, Arts and Humanities, Neapolis Pafos University, Paphos 8042, Cyprus
Received: January 19, 2022 / Revised: February 11, 2022 / Accepted: February 14, 2022 / Published: February 17, 2022
The advent of different initiatives around the globe in the formation of an energy transition towards a “greener” energy production future has sparked a research interest towards the determinants that shape their success. In this article, we start from the relevant literature that assesses the potential effect of geopolitical tensions on renewable energy investments, based on an explicit quantitative approach that provides clear empirical evidence. In doing so, we compile a large panel of 171 economies and measure the effect of geopolitical risk on “green” investment as measured by the popular geopolitical risk index, while controlling for all the major variables proposed by the literature. Our flexible Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with heterogeneous effects across economies suggests that geopolitical risk has a significantly measurable effect on green investments in both the short and long run. In fact, our results suggest that the proper model specification is robust across alternate risk assessments. Overall, our study has direct policy implications suggesting that renewable energy could be an important part of our energy mix only if we take into account its links to geopolitical tensions.
Energy is considered a vital element for the development and prosperity of societies, especially in the modern age of interconnection, high technological advancement and globalization. Despite the fact that energy as a fuel for sustainable development continues to play a vital role, the acute environmental problems of our times have sparked a conversation about the forms and types of energy that must be used to ensure a high quality of life in developed economies. and a secure energy environment to the underdeveloped and developing. Thus, the debate focuses on the right to seek energy abundance and a just energy transition towards more environmentally friendly energy sources for all societies.
Sustainability, The Pandemic, Demographics And Geopolitics
Unlike other societal dilemmas, the historical evolution of the energy transition cannot be used to form a framework of cause and effect in the near future. In particular, the initial changes in fuel from wood to coal, and even oil, can be influenced by the need to provide better services to society. Now, the latest changes can be deliberate and can be seen as driven, for others, by concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, nuclear risks, energy prices or dependence on imports of energy. The problem lies in the fact that some types and forms of energy, such as fossil fuels, emit gases that directly affect the environment to a critical extent, a fact that has already caused potentially irreversible damage around the world [1 ].
The aim of this study is to assess the potential relationship between Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and Geopolitical Risk (GPR) as a driver of the energy transition, since most studies focus mainly on to the role of stakeholders and politics. More precisely, the term “energy transition” refers to a more sustainable use of energy, that of renewable sources. According to the literature, the “transition” concerns the changes of the socio-technical system. In particular, according to [2], the transition is based on three levels: the level of the niche, the level of the regime, and also the level of the landscape, “where global events of impact occur – such as wars , economic crises, environmental disasters, geopolitical events. , supranational decision-making-that influence the stability of the regime and the emergence and development of niches”. In this context, there are several studies that highlight the role of stakeholders and political decision-makers in the energy transition. Indicatively, according to [3] “policy makers should take into account the perception of stakeholders when trying to design a well-adapted and balanced policy intervention”, since the energy transition requires socio-economic and environmental interactions, which create a complicated context in which decision. – manufacturing is done. In addition, [4] the index takes into account several variables, such as governance and economic dynamics, to create a useful tool for political decision-makers to assess the energy transition, since the energy transition policy is determined mainly by the stakeholders, since they affect the decision at many levels [5]. Therefore, the contribution of this study to the existing literature not only examines the potential effect of geopolitical tensions on renewable energy investments, but also enriches the arsenal of stakeholders in the decision-making process.
The correlation of international politics and energy is perceived under many aspects, such as environmental problems and climate change [5, 6, 7, 8], nuclear proliferation [9, 10, 11], and security energy as a vital determinant of economic growth [12, 13, 14]. In a sense of competitiveness and struggle for power rather than cooperation, none of the countries are willing to jeopardize their access to energy production, since it would have severe implications on economic development and development [15, 16, 17]. As mentioned by [18], “the climate regime has been plagued by the problem of “free rider”. If some countries join together and agree to make cuts that are costly, then others that cannot take advantage of the benefits environmental of such actions without paying”. Especially developing countries, such as India and China, refuse to give up coal as a source of energy, since their development is very dependent on this element [19, 20]. Furthermore, access to energy sources is a matter of national security, both in terms of demand and supply [21]. The issue of energy security and also energy autonomy through investment in renewable energy investments has become even more pressing during the latest tensions between Russia and the rest of Europe, the closure of the Gas Pipeline Maghreb-Europe between Algeria and Spain, or the tensions in the Middle East that raised the prices of fossil fuels. The European Union marked the first significant effort to mitigate its dependence on other oil and natural gas producing countries with the ambitious “Green Deal” policy initiative.
The intensive use of fossil fuels during the previous era had a severe environmental impact. The increased energy consumption associated with high CO
Europe’s Energy Transition
Emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels has led to global warming. Current policies implemented by developed countries have not worked effectively for various reasons, including weak political propensity to effectively address the problem. The most illustrative example is the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, although it would be possible for the country to return and rejoin in the near future if a new administration decides to do so . It was the first nation in the world to formally withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement.
During the recent pandemic crisis of COVID-19, the demand for energy decreased due to the slowdown in economic and business activities at the global level. Two years and counting since the start of the pandemic, global energy demand seems close to returning to its previous levels as the global economy recovers to its previous state. The crisis that people were forced to manage without preparation in terms of its extent and intensity, seems to be a prelude to the management of future crises, which will probably become more frequent in other areas such as energy, the economy and others. At the same time, the energy required for the production of one unit of global GDP has decreased during the last years, while investments in energy efficiency have returned and almost started to increase from 2021. Such investments can be linked to better efficiency in terms of optimal use of energy and higher performance. rates that contribute to the need for less energy consumption for the same result.
Although the economically developed countries account for about 60% of the total expenditure
Electricity and energy, conservation of energy electricity, global energy trade, source of energy for electricity, geopolitics of energy, global consumption of energy, geopolitics of oil and gas, source of electricity energy, global trade and finance, the geopolitics of energy, renewable energy and electricity, energy of electricity
