“the Impact Of Energy Transition On Traditional Utility Business Models” – Possible energy transition timeline. The energy transition in this timeline is too slow to match the Paris Agreement.

An energy transition (or energy system transformation) is a significant structural change in an energy system in terms of supply and consumption. Currently, a transition to sustainable energy (mainly renewable energy) is underway to limit climate change. It is also called the renewable energy transition. The current transition is driven by the recognition that global greenhouse gas emissions must be drastically reduced. This process involves phasing out fossil fuels and re-engineering entire systems to operate on low-carbon electricity.

“the Impact Of Energy Transition On Traditional Utility Business Models”

An earlier energy transition occurred during the industrial revolution and involved an energy transition from wood and other biomass to coal, followed by oil and more directly to natural gas.

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To meet the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, emissions must be reduced as quickly as possible and reach zero by mid-year.

Since the end of the 2010s, the transition to renewable energy has also been driven by the increasing competitiveness of solar and wind energy.

The transition from renewable energy includes a shift away from vehicles powered by internal combustion engines towards more public transport, reduced air travel and electric vehicles.

For power grid scaling flexibility, energy storage and supergrids are vital to enable variable and weather dependent technologies.

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An energy transition is a broad shift in technologies and behaviors required to replace one energy source with another.

An excellent example is the shift from a pre-industrial system based on traditional biomass, wind, water and muscle power to an industrial system characterized by widespread mechanization, steam power and the use of coal.

The IPCC does not define energy transition in the glossary of its Sixth Assessment Report, but defines transition as: “The process of moving from one state or condition to another over a given period of time. The transition can occur in individuals, companies, cities, regions and nations, and can be based on incremental or transformative change.”

After the 1973 oil crisis, the term energy transition was coined by politicians and the media. It was popularized by US President Jimmy Carter in his 1977 Address to the Nation on Energy, calling to “look back into history to understand our energy problem. Twice in the last few hundred years, there has been a transition in the way people use energy… As we are now running out of gas and oil, we must quickly prepare for a third shift towards strict conservation and renewed use of coal and towards permanent renewable energy sources such as solar power.”

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The term was later globalized after the second oil shock in 1979, during the 1981 United Nations Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy.

Since the 1990s, debates on the energy transition have increasingly taken into account the mitigation of climate change. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, all 196 participating parties have agreed to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century.

Parties to the agreement pledged to “limit global warming to “well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels”.

This requires a rapid energy transition with a reduction in fossil fuel production to stay within the carbon emissions budget.

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In this context, the term energy transition encompasses a reorientation of energy policy. This could mean a shift from centralized generation to distributed generation. It also includes attempts to replace overproduction and avoidable energy consumption with energy saving measures and greater efficiency.

The historic transitions from locally supplied wood, water and wind energy to globally supplied fossil and nuclear fuels have induced growth in continuous use demand through the rapid expansion of research, education and standardization in engineering. Mechanisms for whole systems changes include a new discipline in transitional engineering across all engineering professions, trepreurs, researchers, and educators.

Coal, oil and natural gas remain the main global sources of energy, as renewable sources have started to increase rapidly.

Historical approaches to past energy transitions are shaped by two main discourses. One argues that humanity has experienced multiple energy transitions in its past, while the other suggests the term “energy additions” as better reflecting changes in global energy supplies over the past three centuries.

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It highlights the changing energy mix of countries and the global economy. By looking at data on percentages of primary energy source used in a giv context, it paints a picture of the world’s energy systems as having changed significantly over time, moving from biomass to coal to oil and now a mix of mostly coal, oil and natural gas. Until the 1950s, the economic engine behind energy systems was local rather than global.

He emphasizes that the term “energy transition” was first used by politicians, not historians, to describe a goal to be achieved in the future – not as a concept to analyze past trends. When looking at the massive amounts of energy being used by humanity, the picture is one of ever-increasing consumption of all major energy sources available to humanity.

For example, the increased use of charcoal in the 19th century did not replace the consumption of wood, in fact more wood was burned. Another example is the introduction of passenger cars in the 20th century. This evolution caused an increase in both oil consumption (to drive the car) and coal consumption (to make the steel needed for the car). In other words, according to this approach, humanity has never made a single energy transition in its history, but has made several energy additions.

Contemporary energy transitions differ in terms of motivation and goals, drivers and governance. As development progressed, the different national systems became more and more integrated, becoming the large international systems of today. Historical changes in energy systems have been extensively studied.

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While historic energy shifts have generally been protracted affairs, unfolding over many decades, this is not necessarily true of the energy transition, which is unfolding under very different policy and technological conditions.

The need for large quantities of firewood in early industrial processes, in combination with prohibitive costs for overland transport, led to a shortage of accessible (i.e. accessible) wood, and eighth-century glassworks “operated as a logging”.

When Britain had to turn to coal after running out of wood, the resulting fuel crisis set off a chain of events that two centuries later culminated in the Industrial Revolution.

Likewise, the increased use of peat and coal were vital elements paving the way for the Dutch Golden Age, spanning roughly the 17th century.

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Another example where resource depletion triggered technological innovation and a shift to new energy sources is whaling in the 19th century: whale oil was eventually replaced by kerosene and other petroleum products.

To accelerate the energy transition, it is also conceivable that there will be government purchases or bailouts of coal mining regions.

With the increased deployment of renewable energy sources, costs have decreased, particularly for energy generated by solar panels.

The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is a measure of the average net cost of generating electricity for a generating plant over its lifetime.

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A rapid energy transition to very low or zero carbon sources is needed to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Despite knowledge about the risks of climate change since the 1980s and the disappearance of the carbon budget to a 1.5 °C trajectory, the global deployment of renewable energy has failed to keep up with rising energy demand for many years.

Coal, oil and gas were cheaper. Only in countries with special tariffs and subsidies did wind and solar energy gain a considerable share, limited to the electricity sector.

From 2010 to 2019, the competitiveness of wind and solar energy has increased enormously. Unit costs for solar power have dropped sharply by 85%, wind power by 55% and lithium-ion batteries by 85%.

The Geopolitics Of The Energy Transition

This makes wind and solar power the cheapest way for new installations in many regions. Leveled costs for photovoltaics combined with storage for a few hours are already lower than for peak gas plants.

Another important factor is energy security and independence, with increasing importance in Europe due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Renewable energy deployment can also include co-benefits of climate change mitigation: positive socio-economic effects on employment, industrial development, health and energy access. Depending on the country and size of deployment, replacing coal plants could more than double the number of jobs per average MW capacity.

Employment opportunities for the great transition are associated with the use of renewable energy sources or construction activity for infrastructure improvements and renovations.

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In addition, replacing coal-based energy with renewable energy can decrease the number of premature deaths caused by air pollution and reduce health care costs.

Governments’ ambition to attract international support for major growth initiatives and public demand for a clean environment are driving the energy transition in developing countries such as Vietnam.

The emission reductions needed to keep global warming below 2°C will require a system-wide transformation in the way energy is produced, distributed, stored and consumed.

For a society to substitute one form of energy for another, various technologies and behaviors in the energy system must change.

Sizing The Energy Transition

Businesses, governments and households have committed increasing amounts to decarbonisation, including solar, wind, electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, storage, heating systems, CCS and hydrog.

Bloomberg NEF reported that in 2022, investment in the global energy transition matched investment in fossil fuels for the first time.

By 2023, electricity

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